Luck Tag Archive

Success is 99.9% luck

(Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) we often have the mistaken impression that a strategy is an excellent strategy, or an entrepreneur a person endowed with “vision,” or a trader a talented trader,...

September 19, 2019| Randomness, Survivorship Bias Read More

How do you get rich without getting lucky?

(Extracted from The Financial Turing Test by Nick Maggiulli) It is probably better to listen to a self-made rich person than a self-made poor person when it comes to financial matters.  However, this doesn’t...

September 18, 2019| Life, Randomness Read More

Luck alone can create successful fund managers

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) We create a cohort that is composed exclusively of incompetent managers. We will define an incompetent manager as someone who has a negative expected return,...

September 15, 2019| Investing, Randomness Read More

Luck factor increases with sample size

(Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) The initial sample size matters greatly. If there are five monkeys in the game, I would be rather impressed with the Iliad writer, to the point of suspecting him to...

September 14, 2019| Investing, Randomness, Survivorship Bias Read More

Mild success by hard work. Wild success by luck.

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all...

September 8, 2019| Life, Randomness Read More

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