(Extracted from Learning to Embrace the Chaos & The End of History Illusion by Ben Carlson)
Being a contrarian is one of the most seductive positions to take because it allows you to feel like you’re smarter than everyone else.
The problem is you can’t always be a contrarian because most of the time that’s indistinguishable from being wrong. Being contrarian really only works at the extremes, which are, by definition, rare.
The crowd can go bonkers at times but most of the time following long-term trends is a better strategy than always going against the grain.