Fallibility

Express your confidence in the accuracy of your belief in percentages

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) … we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would...

August 22, 2020| Confirmation Bias, Ego, Fallibility, Overconfidence Bias Read More

Know when your maps are not useful

(Excerpt from The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish) But what physicists do so well, and most of us do so poorly, is that they carefully delimit what Newtonian and Einsteinian...

August 11, 2020| Circle of Competence, Fallibility, Map Is Not Territory, Structure drives behaviour Read More

Maps need updating

(Excerpt from The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish) We create static rules or policies that deal with the map but forget that we exist in a constantly changing world. When we...

August 11, 2020| Fallibility, Map Is Not Territory, Structure drives behaviour Read More

You win by losing less

(Excerpt from University of Berkshire Hathaway by Daniel Pecaut and Corey Wrenn) He Charlie Munger claimed that his best ideas haven’t done better than others’ best ideas, but he’s lost less on his worst...

April 11, 2020| Fallibility, Inversion, Investing, Via Negativa Read More

Don’t act smart in the markets

(Excerpt from The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham) The art of investment has one characteristic that is not generally appreciated. A creditable, if unspectacular, result can be achieved by the lay investor with...

September 23, 2019| Fallibility, Investing, Overconfidence Bias, Randomness Read More

Being fallible in investing and not hanging onto a wrong idea

(Extracted from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb) One of the best traders I have ever encountered in my life, Nigel Babbage, has the remarkable attribute of being completely free of any path dependence in his...

September 20, 2019| Fallibility, Investing Read More

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