Overconfidence Bias

Express your confidence in the accuracy of your belief in percentages

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) … we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would...

August 22, 2020| Confirmation Bias, Ego, Fallibility, Overconfidence Bias Read More

We alter information to fit our beliefs

(Excerpt from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke) Truthseeking, the desire to know the truth regardless of whether the truth aligns with the beliefs we currently hold, is not naturally supported by the way we process...

August 16, 2020| Ego, Overconfidence Bias Read More

Optimism is a necessary ingredient to progress when the odds are against you

(Excerpt from Same As It Ever Was by Morgan Housel) We tell ourselves stories about our potential for progress because if we’re realistic about how common failure and pain is, we’d never get off the couch. Few would...

August 2, 2020| Overconfidence Bias, Success Read More

Investors are overconfident that they won’t lose everything

(Excerpt from The Interesting Times: Reality Has a Surprising Amount of Detail by Taylor Pearson, 10 Apr 2020) People starting businesses tend to assume that losing everything is a real possibility. People investing in...

April 13, 2020| Overconfidence Bias Read More

You are more open to learning if you assume you are below-average

(Excerpt from Hell Yeah! or Hell No! By Sam Kyle) Ninety-six percent of cancer patients claim to be in better health than the average cancer patient. Ninety-four percent of professors say they are better-than-average...

January 28, 2020| Inversion, Overconfidence Bias Read More

Smart people come up with more bullshit stories

(Excerot from Mark Manson’s Motherfucker Monday 13 Jan 2020) The smarter you are, the easier it is to come up with bullshit to avoid what makes you uncomfortable. Over the years, I’ve noticed the smartest people...

January 16, 2020| Ego, Overconfidence Bias Read More

Don’t act smart in the markets

(Excerpt from The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham) The art of investment has one characteristic that is not generally appreciated. A creditable, if unspectacular, result can be achieved by the lay investor with...

September 23, 2019| Fallibility, Investing, Overconfidence Bias, Randomness Read More

Overconfident people are more dangerous than incompetent people

(Excerpt from Barking Up the Wrong Tree by Eric Barker) Incompetence is a problem that inexperienced people have, and all things being equal, we don’t entrust inexperienced people with all that much power or...

September 20, 2019| Inversion, Overconfidence Bias, People Read More

For sure things get you into trouble

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Anonymous...

September 9, 2019| Overconfidence Bias Read More

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